A Striking Parallel

Well, to put it plainly, I’ve noticed something quite interesting over the past few weeks as the politics of the election has continued to play out up to and after the elections. Everyone seems to “notice things” during an election year, I’ll freely admit, but the revelation that hit me during this last week I found to be immensely interesting. It wasn’t about a specific candidate or issue, it was when I stepped back and analyzed the entire situation. It brought to mind the old saying that “history is doomed to repeat itself”.
Last week I was studying the Great Depression and the following years that led up to the fateful days of World War II. The week before my reading selection had been the Roaring Twenties and I was astonished to discover that such a "loose" attitude prevailing at that time in our history. As I read I found that the decade of the twenties proved to be a very profligate and wasteful time. Everyone spent money and the standard of living was on the rise. On top of the increase in spending on things like entertainment and comforts, many people tried their hand at the stock market. A lot of inexperienced people borrowed money or took from savings to invest in different stocks. By the latter end of the century a Bull Market, where everything in the market is going up, had formed. This seemed all well and good but as we all know, in 1929 the stock market crashed, leaving the foolish investors bankrupt.
What I failed to realize before reading more deeply into the stock market crash was that the market crashed over a matter of days. It wasn’t a sudden day where everyone was bankrupt. I read about “Black Thursday” on October 24, 1929, when the crash began, but then I read about “Black Tuesday” of the following week, which was the worst sell off in the history of the market up to that point. Those were the worst days in a series of days where the market hovered then plunged, then hovered then plunged. Here, then, is the first parallel I saw, the volatile market over the last few months has held many similarities and even been in many ways a lethargic repeat of the stock market crash in 1929. Hovering then plunging and all in all harming those involved. Many smaller investors have been financially hurt or bankrupted.
Ok, so that’s a decent comparison I guess. Nothing too fantastic by itself. But as I read about the reaction of the American people my mind started to explode as I wove more connections. I could see the threads of the tapestry connecting. Just as one can find the same thread running straight through, from end to end of a rug, I started seeing the same thread on both ends of the spectrum. The stock market crash came in the beginning of the Hoover administration. There were more than three years after (the remainder of Hoover's term) for Americans to grow restless and upset with the Republican President before they proceeded to elect the Democrat FDR in 1932. Yes, they American people grew upset and tired with a Republican president who tried to adhere to conservative policies. Sound familiar? Granted, W. Bush has not been the most conservative president we’ve ever had, but apart from the bailouts he’s been more silent then his democratic opponents.
I personally agree with this approach, adopted by the Hoover and Bush administrations. We will help where we must but the government must stay out of the free market as much as possible. Both Hoover and Bush broke down eventually and passed legislation and funding to help but their initial stands and their mindsets, bent towards having a free market that can be left to take care of itself must be noted. Americans had been happy to be left alone during the roaring twenties. Money was everywhere and millionaires were born overnight. Nobody wanted a big government machine coming in and interfering in their lives. But as soon as the Depression wrapped its chilled hands around America the people began clamoring for help. The Government that they liked kept away when they had plenty they wanted to save them now that they had none. This opened the way for socialism. A big government that is willing to take a bit of one’s freedom in order to ease suffering. It is not what the American experiment was meant to be. The government’s job was to protect, not to rule. Freedom belonged to the people and that included the freedom to go unfettered and unhelped through pain as well as success.
Be that as it may, the people wanted help and they overwhelmingly elected Franklin Delano Roosevelt into the White House in 1932. The electoral vote was 472 to 59. Sound familiar? Democrat Barack Obama won the election with 365 votes to John McCain’s 162. Not quite as bad, but Americans in the 1930’s, just like now, felt the need for “change”. They wanted a leader that would actively help them, even if it meant giving up some of their liberties. So, I feel like this has been a bit confusing. To recap my points, the stock market crash of 1929 and subsequent economic downturn was during a Republican’s presidency. The solution was to leave the situation alone as much as possible and let mother nature run her course. After suffering from the pain for long enough the people demanded a leader that would comfort them and help them out quickly. That leader was Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who came in promising the “New Deal”. He proposed massive government projects and spending that had never been heard of before. Against that history we have at the present a weakened stock market and economy during a Republican’s presidency and a nation that wishes for someone to help them. They believe they have found their savior in Barack Obama who has entered the scene with rich, benevolent promises, a "Third New Deal", for the poor and plenty of ideas for massive programs. Spending will be mandatory for his ideas to succeed.
Interestingly, if we take this analogy further we find an fascinating situation. FDR led the nation through the 1930s. He became the first president that, while enjoying immense popularity, decided to run for office more than the amount of time hitherto adhered to. He continued to increase the power of the government and to keep an isolationist America back on the track to a healthy economy. Some now say that his programs ultimately bogged down the rebuilding process even though they helped relieve the immediate stress. Whatever the effects, America’s sudden withdrawal from the world scene in the 1920s and 30s left a weak, war torn Europe alone to rebuild as fast as she could. This allowed Germany, whose angry people were stressed to the utmost by the demanding terms of the Versailles Treaty, signed at the end of WWI, to elect Hitler and for the Italians to bring Mussolini to the forefront, with only a weak Great Britain and France, and revolutionary Russia to stand in their way.
Again, Set against that history, the idea that Russia’s Vladimir Putin already had the guts to invade a country infront of our very noses is something that bears more weight that just its surface. How much more boldness will we see if we withdraw from the world by leaving Iraq or Afghanistan and if we try to bring our jobs, trade and presence as a whole in other countries back home. I know we don’t have the responsibility of the whole world on our shoulders, but we must face the possibility that a world without America watching could bring about some of the most devastating dictators and wars we ever witnessed. With Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and the many other countries that are waiting and watching, what would happen if the mighty US presence suddenly was no more? What would happen if the respected and feared United States military suddenly was a ghost of the past, doing no more than patrol and guard around the United States herself. It is a debatable decision, withdrawing from the world. Don't the Monroe Doctrine and the general ideals in the Constitution herself say that we should stick to our own business? But once we’ve violated that in two world wars and countless other situations can we just leave? Can we just abandon our allies and our partially done missions throughout the world? I think I would have to say no we couldn’t at this point. We must see them through to the end.

-Jaron